AppleInvestor Trade Room » Blog

Cross Margin Discounts with Paired Trades

admin — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 23:12:23 +0000

Correlation Coefficient – Selecting Trading Pairs

admin — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 23:28:36 +0000

Trading Without Stops

admin — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 12:16:22 +0000

Pairs Trading – High Profit Potential, Very Low Risk

admin — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 11:56:08 +0000

Identifying Trading Pairs

admin — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:27:36 +0000

Which pairs to trade? That is the question. In the early days of paired trading, traders would group stocks into broad industry classifications, and every pair within that group was a candidate to trade. But you couldn’t trade just any pair, there had to be a set of filters applied to induce greater control over [...]

The Trader’s Edge

admin — Sun, 13 Nov 2011 14:44:57 +0000

Monkey See, Monkey Do

admin — Sat, 29 Oct 2011 12:04:22 +0000

Everyone’s heard the cliche “Monkey See, Monkey Do.”

Well, if a showed you in 3 simple steps how could execute a trade and make $1000, would you do it? Or, are you not up to the standard of a Monkey?

I have a tool that I lease from Scopelabs called the SMT (Scope Market Trend). It’s one of the many pieces of “Eye Candy” that, give me an edge and help me smart make market decisions.

Now normally I’m not a directional trader, but when presented with a tool of this caliber, and a setup that says…Hey dummy, you’ve seen this before! Well, then I’m compelled to do it. Monkey See, Monkey Do!

This is one of several tools that WILL give you an edge, that I’ll make available in my new service coming soon.

Refer to the chart below of the E-mini S&P futures from yesterday, superimposed with the SMT, below and the three steps…

(click chart to enlarge)

A) Rising green bars to threshold

B) Market dips while green bars continue to rise

C) A=A bottoms out and turns up, Buy that Dip!

Why Apple Missed on Earnings

admin — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 11:42:22 +0000

Were you one of the faithful, one of those unfortunate soles caught in the Reality Distortion field, the phenomenon that was so often associated with the late, and great, Steve Jobs? Were you smitten by the thousands of people waiting in line for an iPhone 4S.

Yes? Well then it’s understandable that you failed to see why earnings fell short. By all accounts, both credible and covert, Apple was to reveal an iPhone 5, but they didn’t. Many thought they would have released the iPad 3 by now as well, but they didn’t.

Instead we got a rehashed iPhone 4 and a spruced up iPad 2. Was it to save money? Or was it because they felt the first incarnations of the iPhone 4 and iPad were bombs…not externally, but internally. And Steve couldn’t live with that. No pun intended.

Let’s face it, when the iPhone 4 came out it was by all accounts an incredible achievement, but it had a serious flaw. Apple did a masterful job at covering it up. I’m speaking of the antena of course. They masked the flaw with a free bumper.

But that wasn’t the way Steve envision his phone in the wild. He saw the iPhone 4 as a thing of beauty; a piece of hardened steel sandwitched between two saphire-hard sheets of glass. How Zen! That vision was spoiled by antena-gate.

I’ll bet anything that Steve Jobs was infuriated when the antena flaw came to light. He probably thought you might as well have wrapped the iPhone in electrical tape. So, he insisted on getting it right before moving on to the next generation iPhone. And so, that’s what Apple did, they got it right, because that’s the way Steve wanted it. Diddos for the iPad.

And if you think Steve was concerned about missing numbers at earnings, versus getting the product right, then you’re delusional. Steve would have taken a 20% hit in earnings rather than settle for less than perfect. And so that’s why the iPhone 5 and iPad 3 were delayed, and why Apple earnings came up short…because Steve said let’s step back, do it right, then go forward.

Apple Misses – Great Buying Opportunity

admin — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 11:17:05 +0000

Last night Apple reported earnings after the market closed, and by all analysts accounts Apple missed badly. How arrogant! What they mean to say is that Apple missed their stupid projections. The facts are that Apple beat their own estimates handily.

I guess these analysts know what they’re doing. I mean every other quarter they underestimate and are surprised when Apple beats. So they finally think they’ll get the upper hand by pumping up their projections to unrealistic levels, and they lose again.

The plain and simple fact is that most analysts out there are complete ignoramuses. Now I don’t say this lightly, I say this with a certain level of knowledge. You see, I’ve consulted for several of these analysts and I know how they operate.

Industry consulting organizations that house these analysts, especially those in the computer and wireless communications space, are comprised largely of glorified reporters that have never held a position in the industry for which they analyze. The companys’ modus operandi is to hire talent directly out of top flight schools, usually ivy-league, as this brings them cache with their clients. But I don’t care what school you come from, if you have no experience, you’re still as ignorant as any other grad.

It’s amazing to me that investment firms employ these bozos to guide their investors.

Anyways, that’s my rant, now back to Apple.

As I said, Apple beat their own projections as they had another record quarter, which did not get reported. But the facts are the facts, Apple (AAPL) stock is down big in the after hours, as much as 5.6%! Apple will probably open below $400. If it was a buy a couple weeks ago below 400, wouldn’t you think it’s a bargain today? Nothing has changed, except that Apple had the audacity to throw egg in the face of a bunch of stupid analysts.

Oh, by the way. I knew that this would happen through my own analysis, I never went to an Ivy-League school, but I do have quite a bit of industry experience. And I called it in my Twitter account that focuses on AAPL calls. In fact here are some of the tweets from yesterday…

You can click the image to go to the aapl_alerts Twitter channel

And here’s the actual call from the day before earnings (October 17, 2011)…

I created this Twitter channel a few weeks ago and I makes Apple (AAPL) calls every day. I haven’t published an actual accounting of the performance yet, but I can tell you that the win rate is well above 85%! And the average winners far outstrip the losers, especially with this last call.

So why don’t you follow me @aapl_alerts? I also include market analysis and arbitrage and options trades as well.

-ernie

Steve Jobs Was My Hero

admin — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 12:50:53 +0000

I can say without reservation that Steve Jobs was one of the most influential persons in my life. He touched the lives of so many people, but not by reaching out to them, instead he touched lives through example, through his vision, creativity and action. He was singularly focused on one thing, perfecting his vision.

And through this singularity of purpose, he changed the world for the better. He inspired people through the pursuit of excellence, yet he recognized to achieve excellence and grow you must surround yourself with talented people and demand excellence of them.

He was a wealthy man, yet he did not go to bed each night thinking how much money he made, rather he thought, did I do something worth doing, did I make a difference. And in his own words, “Is this something I would have done if I knew it were my last day on earth?”

My career and much of my life was directly influenced by Steve Jobs. I started programming on Apple computers. I was so smitten with the design and quality that I worked with them, I played with them, I sold them, I evangelized them into companies. I met my wife because of Apple products.

I have patterned my life after the mantra of “think different.” I was introduced to Zen Buddhism because of Steve Jobs, I’ve imparted many of the principles I learned through all of this to my children, who are today beautiful, smart, creative and independent people. I’m writing you today in large part because of the influence of Steve Jobs.

Yesterday, the day Steve passed, was my birthday. I was celebrating it with my wife and kids, about to cut the cake, when we heard the news of his passing. What an ominous and grievous gift. And even though it was a sad moment, it also made me think back and reflect on how much an influence Steve Jobs had on my life, and all I could think was to thank him.